Offshore Wind Jack-ups: Supply & Demand 2017-2026

The below sample is taken from 4C Offshore's latest analysis of the jack-up market for offshore wind. The report is available exclusively to subscribers of our offshore wind Construction and Maintenance Vessels Subscription. To receive the complete sample and details of the report's contents then please contact me on richard.aukland@4coffshore.net or enquire here.

The Jack-up Fleet

There are approximately 45 jack-ups in the European offshore wind fleet serving a combination of project development, turbine and foundation installation, accommodation and maintenance services. Early projects used existing general purpose jack-ups or converted vessels for turbine installation, and crane vessels or heavy lift units for the installation of foundation structures. In 2003 the first dedicated Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (TIV) designed specifically for the installation of both foundations and turbines entered service. Also known as a ‘2nd generation jack-up’, the MPI Resolution used a pile upending tool when foundations became heavier than crane capacity. Since then many 2nd generation TIV’s have been introduced, with the latest and most capable new builds referred to as ‘3rd generation’ vessels. Figure 1 shows clearly the trend for more capable vessels with longer leg lengths, payload, deck space and lifting capability for dealing with increasingly larger and heavy turbines being installed in deeper water further from shore. Future projects are drawn from 4C Offshore’s Windfarms-Light Database, which includes analyst consideration of those most likely to proceed. Note that some water depths for the projects have been estimated where the project location has not yet been exactly identified.

 An effective jack up provides a safe and stable platform within the operating limitations of water depth, environmental conditions and variable load. Jack-up design requires efficiently balancing the operational requirements of the vessel into the design whilst maintaining a safe and stable platform. For example, a heavier crane lift will require a wider leg spacing which in turn leads to broader heavier hulls, stronger legs and higher costs. A costly vessel will demand a higher day rate to be profitable over its lifetime and, if there is insufficient demand for the heavier lift, then margins will be squeezed as the vessel competes with cheaper, lower specified vessels.   

Earlier jack-ups, for example, Geosea’s Neptune or the Seajacks Kraken which are capable of installing smaller turbines such as the Siemens 3.6MW, are no longer suitable for the larger turbines seen today. Instead, they are continuing to find opportunities in operations and maintenance work; installation of transition pieces or met masts; or nearshore farms and emerging markets, as well as opportunities within the oil and gas sector.

As wind projects enter the 40 metre plus depths found across the whole southern North Sea and Baltic there are greater opportunities for the design of jack-ups capable of operating in both oil and gas and offshore wind markets. Jack-ups that can easily switch between the two whilst meeting the requirements of both provide more options to vessel operators during market lows. GustoMSC positioned the NG-5500X design in this strategic space and quickly secured an order from GeoSea for the Apollo, which will be delivered in 2017.  

Turbine Trends

Coupled with the changing project environment there has been a faster than expected introduction of larger turbine models. For projects entering offshore construction between 2011 and 2013 the Siemens SWT-3.6 turbine dominated. Since 2015 however, turbine rated capacity has increased markedly with the introduction of 6MW and greater machines; 8MW models will become increasingly prevalent from 2018 (Figure 9). The increase in rated capacity is a response to the demand for machines which are larger, boasting higher reliability and yield, whilst maintaining lower operating costs. Using fewer machines reduces overall unit CAPEX costs by reducing the number of foundation units and installations required, and reduces OPEX costs as more MW can be serviced and maintained at the same effort level (i.e. the variable costs of O&M are reduced). Improvements in rotor, blade and generator design have also resulted in increased annual unit energy production and lower LCOE. The specifications of a selection of key offshore turbine models is provided below in Figure 4:  

As turbines have become more powerful, the rotors have become larger, the nacelles heavier and the towers longer. This has increased the lifting demands placed on the jack-up fleet, with some seeking to upgrade their leg or lift capabilities sooner than expected given the rapid market penetration of larger turbine models. Whilst the maximum turbine weight installed each year has remained around 400t for nacelle and hub, the proportion of projects utilising 6MW and higher machines is increasing yearly, with the mean weight likely to exceed 400t by 2020 (Figure 10). Based on existing ratios of nacelle weight to rated capacity (Figure 6), 10MW machines will be in excess of 500t and 12MW machines above 600t with rotors over 200m in diameter and hub heights of 130m plus. Industry communications suggest 10MW turbines could be market ready for the early 2020s.  

The above sample is taken from 4C Offshore's latest analysis of the jack-up market for offshore wind. The report is available exclusively to subscribers of our offshore wind Construction and Maintenance Vessels Subscription. To receive the complete sample and details of the report's contents then please contact me on richard.aukland@4coffshore.net or enquire here.